Forecasting South African inflation using non-linearmodels: a weighted loss-based evaluation

The conduct of inflation targeting is heavily dependent on accurate inflation forecasts. Non-linear models have increasingly featured, along with linear counterparts, in the forecasting literature. In this study, we focus on forecasting South African inflation by means of non-linear models and using a long historical dataset of seasonally adjusted monthly inflation rates spanning from 1921:02 to 2013:01. For an emerging market economy such as South Africa, non-linearities can be a salient feature of such long data, hence the relevance of evaluating non-linear models’ forecast performance. In the same vein, given the fact that 1969:10 marks the beginning of a protracted rising trend in South African inflation data, we estimate the models for an in-sample period of 1921:02–1966:09 and evaluate 1, 4, 12, and 24 step-ahead forecasts over an out-of-sample period of 1966:10–2013:01. In addition, using a weighted loss function specification, we evaluate the forecast performance of different non-linear models across various extreme economic environments and forecast horizons. In general, we find that no competing model consistently and significantly beats the LoLiMoT’s performance in forecasting South African inflation.     

Stock index futures trading and volatility in international equity markets

This article examines stock market volatility before and after the introduction of equity‐index futures trading in twenty‐five countries, using various models that account for asynchronous data, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric volatility responses, and the joint dynamics of each country's index with the world‐market portfolio. We found that futures trading is related to an increase in conditional volatility in the United States and Japan, but in nearly every other country, we found either no significant effect or a volatility‐dampening effect. This result appears to be robust to model specification and is corroborated by further analysis of the relationship between volatility, trading volume, and open interest in stock futures. An increase in conditional covariance between country‐specific and world returns at the time of futures listing is also documented. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:661–685, 2000     

The theory of communicative language: Political economy for multiple civilizations

The main stream economic paradigm generates some cultural conflicts, un-sustainability of Earth resources and conceptual distortions. This paper introduces the theory of communicative language (TCL) to address negative effects of economic value making on political and social relations. It adopts a conceptual perspective and elaborates economic, political and social relations with regard to means of communication. Having put the theoretical foundation, the paper builds alternative futures in which “communicative language” identifies co-existence of multiple civilizations stemming from sustainability; where as extensive use of “dominative language” in economic and political actions, leads to social decay, results in un-sustainability, and generates conflicts between cultures and civilizations.     

Protectionist demands in globalization

Review of Economic Design - We construct a game theoretic model that offers to explain the increase in trade protectionism as a rational reaction of the voters to their increased concern that the...     

The resurrection of earlier imprints post mortem: Explaining the Turkish agricultural cooperative movement with an imprinting theory lens, 1888–1937

This study aims to extend the cooperative lifecycle theory, which builds on consecutive degeneration and regeneration of ideal cooperative values such as democracy, self-help, and solidarity by offering a new regenerative mechanism. In this respect, the study imports multilevel imprinting theory from the organizational ecology domain to explicate the punctuated evolutionary pattern of Turkish agricultural credit cooperatives, which displayed significantly different characteristics from Raiffeisen cooperatives that cooperative discourse in Türkiye used for a long as a benchmark. The archival research undertaken in the study asserts that the imprints of Ottoman Memleket Sandiks (OMS) have stamped agricultural credit cooperatives of the Republican era long after their erosion. The resurrection of imprints was enabled by Ziraat Bank, which acted as an intermediary organization and took over the remnants of OMSs. Our analyses also suggest that the State's polity and policy transformations culminate in selective activation of past imprints within the Ziraat Bank, which, in turn, shaped the Turkish agricultural cooperative field.     

Quid pro quo harassment,contracts and liability

This paper identifies two channels through which contracts induce performance and contain quid pro quo harassment: a disincentive effect raises the cost for harassers and a selection effect that attracts whistleblower types raises potential victims' resistance. An effective employer liability generates a negative relationship between wages and harassment risk. If liability is ineffective, however, employers can opt for low-wage contracts that induce high harassment and minimum internal complaints. In such environments, wages compensate exogenous harassment risks. Thus the wage-harassment risk equation can signal effectiveness of employer liability.     

Climate change and spatial agricultural development in Turkey

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of agricultural production in Turkey between 2004 and 2019. Our findings show that climate change has a pervasive impact on agricultural development. The empirical results show that the average temperature is negatively associated with agricultural land use, grain, and legume production. Moreover, regional variability analyses reveal the nonmonotonic relationships between climatic factors and agricultural output. Climate change hurts agricultural production in northern and central regions the most. This finding points out the ineffectiveness of one-size-fits-all-type policies for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change in topography with sizeable spatial dissimilarities. Overall, our results suggest that climate change will significantly threaten the evolution of agricultural activities that are critical for regional development. In addition, findings show that spatial spillovers and heterogeneity will be crucial for designing climate change policies for rural and agricultural development.     

EFFECTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

This paper assesses the effects of real depreciation on the economic performance of Turkey by considering quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:III. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to classical wisdom, the real depreciations are contractionary, even when external factors like world interest rates, international trade, and capital flows are controlled. Moreover, the results obtained from the analyses indicate that real exchange rate depreciations are inflationary.     

Effects of Policy Reforms on Firm Innovation

Review of Industrial Organization - The regulatory environment in a country is an important factor that affects firm performance. This study investigates the impact of a particular...